Gold, dollar stabilize as key stocks defy market turbulence

Gold and dollar prices experience volatility due to geopolitical risks, FED expectations, and central bank interventions, while certain stocks rise against a declining BIST100 index.

Gold prices stagnate

As of August 8, 2024, the price of gold remains stable, with a gram of gold priced at ₺2,580 and an ounce at $2,395. Analysts suggest that a combination of profit-taking sales, declining aggressive rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and stabilized geopolitical risks in the Middle East are contributing factors to this stagnation. Despite recent tests of $2400 per ounce and 2600 TL per gram, gold prices have experienced a downward pressure due to sales.

In global markets, gold trades near $2,395 per ounce. The U.S. benchmark bond yield is just below 4%, and the dollar index remains steady at around 103.00. The global risk index (VIX) has risen again, approaching 28 from 22. Analysts highlight that the $2,365-$2,380 range per ounce is crucial support and stability above this range could indicate the potential for future increases.

Dollar awaits Central Bank’s inflation report

The dollar started the day at ₺33.52, following a surge in overnight TL interest rates to 52.96%, the highest in 2 months. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) intervened with approximately $5 billion during the recent global market turmoil. Despite the dollar’s climb to a record high of ₺33.66 this week, it has since stabilized, awaiting the CBRT’s third inflation report of the year.

Amid volatile global markets, the USD/JPY pair has shown a significant recovery, indicating short-term relief for carry trade positions. However, the CBRT’s reserves have decreased by nearly $5 billion in the first two days of this week, primarily due to carry trade transactions. The dollar trades within a narrow range of ₺33.45-₺33.55 in exchange offices.

Stocks to watch amid BIST100 decline

The BIST100 index closed at 10,024 yesterday, marking a 4.3% decline over the first 3 days of the week amid global market shocks. Despite the overall downturn, some stocks have shown positive divergence. TUKAS Gida rose by 14.56%, OBA Makarna by 8.32%, KOZA Madencilik by 8.16%, Limak Cimento by 7.00%, and KOZA Altin by 5.24%. Analysts stress the importance of the 10,000-point level as critical support, warning of potential further declines to the 9,850-9,700 range if breached.

Among the 10 stocks that rose in the last 3 days, sectors such as food, construction, mining, and information technology stood out. Analysts note that during such turbulent periods, bank and holding stocks tend to lag, and stocks with weak financial statements that had previously surged may continue to be under pressure.