Bitcoin nears $63,500 amid geopolitical tensions, US election polls

Bitcoin begins the new week close to $63,500, aligning with its 200-day moving average. Geopolitical risks and a rising U.S. dollar index are dampening a clear upward movement of bitcoin.

However, recent polls indicate that crypto-friendly candidate Donald Trump is leading in five of the seven key swing states ahead of the upcoming elections, boosting market optimism. Notably, bitcoin has remained above $60,000 for the past three weeks, attracting investor attention.

In the last five days, bitcoin surged, moving further away from the $60,000 threshold. On Oct. 2, the cryptocurrency closed at $60,500, near its 50-day moving average, and tested the $63,500 level on Oct. 7, 2024. This price point is significant as it aligns with the 200-day moving average.

Eyes on US election polls

As the U.S. presidential elections approach in four weeks, striking results continue to emerge from the polls. According to a report by Newsweek, Trump, known for his support of cryptocurrencies, is currently leading in five out of the seven swing states that could significantly influence the election outcome.

Which candidate leads in which state?

The poll in question was conducted by AtlasIntel, recognized for its accurate predictions during the 2020 presidential election. According to the results, Trump holds a lead of about three points in battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, while maintaining a limited advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. In contrast, his opponent, Kamala Harris, is ahead of Trump by three points in North Carolina and Nevada.

Nationally, Harris leads with 49% to Trump’s 47%. However, analysts suggest that the race in the swing states could remain tightly contested until the very end.

Bitcoin expectations, targets for October

Examining the trading outlook for bitcoin in October, it was noted that $361 million flowed out of U.S. exchange-traded fund on Oct. 1, 2 and 3. However, on Friday, Oct. 4, there was a noteworthy inflow of $25.6 million. This trend of inflow appeared to continue over the weekend.

Despite this, the increase in geopolitical risks and recent U.S. economic data have contributed to a more limited upward price movement for bitcoin.

Critical levels for bitcoin

Analysts indicate that bitcoin’s ability to remain above $60,000 for the past three weeks is a positive sign. They highlight that the $63,500 level, which indicates the 200-day moving average, is an important resistance point to watch.

If this level is consistently surpassed, it could bring the target of $66,500 back into play in the coming days.