China faces setback as Assad’s regime falls

The fall of the authoritarian dictator Bashar al-Assad‘s regime in Syria marks a significant setback for China’s influence in the Middle East, exposing the limits of its diplomatic and economic ambitions in the region according to Reuters.

Key points

• Assad’s fall: Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which China had strongly backed, collapsed on Sunday after anti-regime forces seized Damascus. This marks the end of Assad’s 50-year dynasty in Syria.

• China’s relationship with Assad’s regime: Just over a year ago, China welcomed Assad and his wife during a six-day visit, pledging support for Syria’s rebuilding and opposing external interference.
• China’s regional strategy: The downfall of Assad’s regime weakens the influence of China’s key allies, Russia and Iran, and raises questions about Beijing’s ability to shape political outcomes in the Middle East.
• China’s response: China’s foreign ministry has called for a “political solution” in Syria, with cautious statements on future engagement. Beijing is expected to wait before recognizing any new government in Damascus.

What’s next

• Reconstruction: While China could play a role in Syria’s reconstruction, its financial commitment is expected to be limited due to recent efforts to minimize financial risks overseas.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Despite Syria’s inclusion in China’s BRI, there have been no major investments, partly due to ongoing sanctions.