IMF projects Türkiye as 17th largest global economy in 2024
IMF takes a step against corruption, Washington, US, April 23, 2018. (AA Photo)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Türkiye will become the 17th largest economy in the world by 2024, climbing up one spot from its previous ranking.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released in October 2024, Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow to $1.344 trillion by the end of the year, moving the country up from 18th place in 2023.
IMF and OVP projections differ for upcoming years
The IMF has also outlined its GDP projections for Türkiye through 2029. It estimates Türkiye‘s GDP to reach:
- $1.46 trillion in 2025
- $1.48 trillion in 2026
- $1.57 trillion in 2027
- $1.66 trillion in 2028
- $1.76 trillion by 2029
These figures suggest that Türkiye will maintain its position as the 17th largest economy globally for the next several years.
However, these projections differ from the targets set in Türkiye’s Medium-Term Economic Program (OVP). While the IMF’s forecast for 2024 exceeds the OVP’s estimate, its predictions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 fall below the targets outlined in the OVP. The OVP anticipates GDP figures of:
- $1.47 trillion in 2025
- $1.64 trillion in 2026
- $1.77 trillion in 2027
According to the IMF, Türkiye will only reach $1.7 trillion in GDP by 2029.
Top 10 economies in 2024: US still dominates
The IMF has confirmed that the United States will remain the world’s largest economy in 2024, with a GDP of $29.17 trillion. Following the U.S., China is projected to have a GDP of $18.27 trillion, making it the second-largest economy. Other top contenders include Germany ($4.71 trillion), Japan ($4.07 trillion), and India ($3.89 trillion).
Notably, Brazil and Canada will swap places in 2024, with Brazil moving up to ninth place and Canada dropping to tenth. Despite these shifts, the top eight economies will retain their positions throughout the year.
Türkiye ranks 12th in GDP by purchasing power parity
When GDP is measured based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Türkiye’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2024, reaching $3.456 trillion. This will allow the country to maintain its 12th position in the global ranking.
The IMF expects Türkiye to climb to 11th place by 2027, with a projected PPP-based GDP of $3.8 trillion, and estimates that it will stay in this position through 2029 when its PPP-based GDP could approach $4.5 trillion.
Per capita income: Türkiye rises to 67th place
Türkiye’s per capita income is also forecasted to improve. The IMF projects that Türkiye’s per capita income will reach $15,666 in 2024, up from $13,236 in 2023, pushing it five places higher to rank 67th globally. Despite this, the forecast remains slightly below the OVP’s 2024 target of $15,551.
According to the OVP, per capita income goals for subsequent years are set at $17,028 for 2025, $18,990 for 2026, and $20,420 for 2027. The IMF, however, suggests that Türkiye’s per capita income may not surpass $20,000 until 2029.
Global leaders in per capita income
Luxembourg continues to lead the world in per capita income, with $135,321. Following Luxembourg are:
- Switzerland: $106,098,
- Ireland: $103,500
- Norway: $90,434
- Singapore: $89,370
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s PPP-based per capita income is expected to be $35,449 in 2024, maintaining its 59th position in the global ranking. By 2029, the figure could exceed $40,000.
Can Türkiye achieve high-income status?
The World Bank classifies economies based on per capita income, updating threshold values annually. As of July 1, 2024, countries with per capita incomes below $1,145 are considered low-income, while those above $14,005 are deemed high-income.
Türkiye, which recorded a per capita income of $13,110 in 2023, remains in the upper-middle-income category. However, with a projected income of $15,666 in 2024, Türkiye may be on the brink of joining the high-income league.
Whether the country can achieve this milestone depends on its ability to reach or surpass the forecasted income levels and the World Bank’s updated income thresholds, set to be revised on July 1, 2025.
