IMF lowers Türkiye’s growth forecast for 2024, 2025
A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. (Reuters Photo/Johannes P. Christo)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Türkiye for the years 2024 and 2025. The global lender’s “World Economic Outlook Report” indicates a downward adjustment for Türkiye’s projected growth, reflecting broader global economic uncertainties.
Türkiye’s growth forecast reduced for 2024 and 2025
In its latest report, the IMF has lowered Türkiye’s 2024 growth forecast from 3.6% to 3%. Similarly, the 2025 projection has been reduced from 3.2% to 2.7%. Despite these downward revisions, the IMF anticipates that Türkiye’s economy will grow by 3.9% in 2029.
Inflation forecast adjusted for Türkiye
The IMF has also updated its inflation expectations for Türkiye. The consumer price index (CPI) forecast for 2024 has been increased to 60.9%, up from the previous estimate of 59.5%. However, the 2025 inflation estimate has been revised down to 33%, from an earlier projection of 38.4%. The report predicts inflation will drop to 24% by the end of 2025.
Global economic outlook remains uncertain
Globally, the IMF maintained its 2024 growth projection at 3.2% but lowered the 2025 forecast slightly to 3.2% from 3.3%. The report also indicates that global inflation is expected to decrease, with 2024 inflation projected at 5.8% and 2025 at 4.3%.
Türkiye’s economic outlook in context
Türkiye remains one of the emerging markets in Europe facing downward revisions in growth expectations. For the broader group of emerging European economies, the IMF forecasts growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. The long-term outlook for these economies sees growth stabilizing at around 2.5% by 2029.
