Turkish central bank survey revises year-end inflation expectations upward to 43.31%

Year-end inflation expectations have been revised upward once again, according to the central bank’s August Market Participants Survey.

Economists and industry representatives now predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 43.31% by the end of the year, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 42.95%.

The persistent rise in inflation is deepening economic uncertainties and eroding purchasing power, particularly as price increases in essential goods and energy products strain household budgets.

Experts warn that sustained high inflation could also weaken investor confidence.

Despite a slight decrease in the 12-month inflation expectation, which fell from 30.02% to 28.71%, the figures remain elevated. Meanwhile, the projected USD/TRY exchange rate for the end of the year has marginally decreased to 37.27, down from the previous estimate of 37.36.

Economists attribute the high inflation to global economic developments, fluctuations in energy prices, and disruptions in supply-demand balances.