Historic Istanbul monuments at risk in next earthquake, expert warns

As the specter of a major earthquake looms over Istanbul, concerns are mounting about the fate of the city’s iconic historical structures. TGRT Haber has delved into the issue, uncovering a stark reality: many of these beloved landmarks, which draw millions of tourists each year, are at risk of being destroyed in the anticipated Marmara earthquake.

Among the most visited historical sites in Istanbul are the Suleymaniye Mosque, New Mosque, Grand Bazaar, Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque, Sultanahmet Mosque and Fatih Mosque. How much damage might these landmarks endure?

Geology Engineer Tevfik Hos explained to TGRT Haber reporter Hanifi Bayar what to expect.

Expected damage to Istanbul’s walls

Istanbul’s ancient walls, stretching 20.52 kilometers (12.75 miles), have withstood numerous earthquakes and natural disasters throughout history. How will these walls fare in a potential Marmara earthquake?

Hos described two areas of the historical walls that are expected to suffer ground-related damage after the anticipated Marmara earthquake: “The first area is along the seaside, particularly from Yedikule to Altinkapi. The second area is the broad alluvial valley known as the Likos Valley, located between Edirnekapı and Topkapı. The towers positioned every 50 meters are also expected to suffer significant damage.”

Suleymaniye Mosque’s resilience

Hos shared the secret behind Süleymaniye Mosque’s survival through 89 earthquakes without damage: “The ground improvement work at Süleymaniye Mosque, the impeccable symmetry of the structure, and the high load-bearing capacity of the supporting piers ensure that the mosque is expected to withstand the possible Istanbul earthquake without significant damage.”

Potential collapse of Hagia Sophia

A magnitude 7 or higher earthquake in Marmara could result in three main risks to the Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque.

These include the risk of the minarets collapsing, and the potential for the main dome and adjoining side domes to suffer structural failure.

Sultanahmet Mosque among most resilient

Sultanahmet Mosque appears to be among the most resilient structures.

The 1766 earthquake caused collapses primarily in the minarets, but the main load-bearing system remained largely undamaged.

Fatih Mosque’s historical damage

Fatih Mosque suffered heavy damage in the 1766 earthquake and was rebuilt in 1771. However, the 1999 Golcuk earthquake caused a shift in its foundation, leading to a need for reinforcement.

It is anticipated that both the foundation and the load-bearing system of Fatih Mosque may encounter issues in the Marmara earthquake.

Grand Bazaar’s risk of total collapse

Among the historical and cultural structures in the Historic Peninsula, the Grand Bazaar is predicted to be one of the riskiest. Its asymmetry and irregularities make it susceptible to complete collapse under lateral earthquake forces.

Hos’ comments on the New Mosque being one of the strongest structures highlight the need for authorities to be prepared for all possible scenarios regarding these historical sites.