Gold prices could reach $4,000 on central bank demand: JPMorgan

U.S.-based investment bank JPMorgan forecasts that spot gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026, citing growing concerns over a potential U.S. recession and rising trade tensions with China, which have in turn intensified central bank demand and fueled the rally in gold.

In a market note released Tuesday, the bank said it expects gold prices to rise to approximately $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025. The projection follows a year of unprecedented gains for gold, which surged over 32% at its peak and broke 28 record highs since the beginning of the year.

Spot gold briefly surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday before retreating to $3,310 following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump.

While President Trump confirmed that he does not intend to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, he reiterated calls for interest rate cuts and suggested a possible rollback of tariffs on Chinese goods, which had previously reached as high as 145%.

“They won’t be anywhere near that number,” Trump said, referring to the tariffs. “But it won’t be zero either.”

Warns of risks to gold rally, silver to rebound by late 2025

JPMorgan identified a potential decline in central bank demand as the primary downside risk for gold. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks added 1,045 metric tons of gold to their reserves in 2024, with the largest share of purchases occurring toward the end of the year. The accumulation trend has extended into 2025, indicating a continued effort to strengthen gold holdings.

The bank also provided an outlook for silver, warning of short-term pressure due to uncertainty in industrial demand. However, it expects a recovery in the second half of 2025 and forecasts silver prices to approach $39 per ounce by the end of the year.