Economic uncertainty worst scenario for global markets: Turkish VP Yilmaz

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz emphasized that uncertainty is the most damaging factor for the global economy and international trade, underlining the urgent need for effective negotiations and timely decision-making in a volatile economic environment.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA) during the 2025 Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Yilmaz stated, “From the global economy and trade perspective, the worst situation is uncertainty. Eliminating these uncertainties and concluding negotiations effectively are highly valuable for the world economy. The current period we are going through is not one in which these uncertainties have been resolved.”

‘Diplomacy is crucial to preventing conflict’

Yilmaz praised the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, held under the auspices of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and hosted by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, as a key venue for global engagement.

He noted that the forum brought together world leaders for bilateral and trilateral meetings to address international issues.

Highlighting the role of diplomacy in conflict prevention, Yilmaz said, “If there is no dialogue—not just among allies, but especially among those who disagree—then diplomacy breaks down. And what follows is conflict, even war. Therefore, diplomacy is vital. If we don’t want war or conflict, we must resolve problems through dialogue and negotiation.”

Yilmaz: Current environment requires active policy-making

Yilmaz stressed that the current global context is not suited for autopilot governance. “This is not a process where we can simply switch to autopilot,” he said.

“We must closely monitor developments and respond in a timely and strategic manner with our policies,” he added.

He emphasized Türkiye’s active role in promoting diplomacy amid rising geopolitical tensions and global competition.

He also underlined that multipolarity is shaping the world order and that negotiation is the only way to reduce the risk of conflict.

US-China trade tensions highlight global economic uncertainty

Yilmaz pointed to intensifying trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China. He reiterated the importance of diplomacy and negotiation over trade barriers.

“A world filled with uncertainties is harmful to all,” Yilmaz said.

“The worst scenario for the global economy and trade is uncertainty. These uncertainties need to be eliminated as soon as possible through effective negotiations. But we’re not there yet,” he added.

US tariff policy and its implications for Türkiye

Commenting on recent U.S. tariff measures, Yilmaz noted that while Washington has declared certain tariffs, it has also expressed willingness to negotiate.

He stated that the U.S. has initiated similar processes with multiple countries and that China has responded with countermeasures.

Yilmaz indicated that Türkiye faces the lowest tariff rates so far and that these matters will be addressed in upcoming talks.

$100 billion US-Türkiye trade target still in sight

Yilmaz recalled the trade volume goal of $100 billion, previously set during Donald Trump’s presidency, and noted that current figures have reached about one-third of that amount.

He emphasized balanced trade as a priority, “Our agenda with the United States is not limited to tariffs,” Yilmaz said.

“We are working to increase trade volume in a balanced way, beneficial to both sides. Services trade is as important as goods,” he added.

He also stressed the importance of closely monitoring global markets. “When the U.S. market closes, countries that used to export to the U.S., such as China, will seek other markets. This increases global competition. We must track these developments.”

Türkiye to assess economic impacts, strategic responses

Yilmaz confirmed that Türkiye would evaluate these developments in the upcoming Economic Coordination Board meeting.

He highlighted the need for a proactive stance: “This is not a process we can navigate on autopilot. We must analyze impacts and determine how to reduce risks and make the most of opportunities.”