Venice could face renewed flooding by 2150, scientists warn
St. Marks Square (Piazza San Marco) during flood (acqua alta) in Venice, Italy, November 12, 2019. (Adobe Stock Photo)
Venice, the world-famous canal city, could once again be at risk of devastating floods by 2150 as its electromagnetic flood barriers may become ineffective, according to a new study.
The Italian news agency ANSA reported findings from an international study coordinated by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). Published in the journal Remote Sensing, the study presents scenarios based on the latest climate change projections, calculating expected sea levels in the Venice Lagoon by 2150.
Venice’s flood defenses may be overwhelmed
The research suggests that both land subsidence and rising sea levels could contribute to the increased flood risk, potentially rendering Venice’s MOSE (Modulo di Supporto Elettromeccanico) flood barrier system insufficient.
Designed to protect Venice from rising tides, the MOSE system consists of electromagnetic barriers capable of managing sea level differences of up to 3 meters (9.84 feet). However, experts warn that this capacity could be exceeded as climate change accelerates sea-level rise.
Detailed flood risk scenarios mapped
The study outlines flood risk scenarios for 2050, 2100, and 2150, mapping potential outcomes for the lagoon if additional protective systems are not implemented. Without further reinforcements, Venice could face severe flooding, reminiscent of past disasters.
Marco Anzidei, research coordinator at INGV, emphasized the urgency of proactive measures. “The outlined scenarios show that policymakers and local authorities must update regional planning and risk strategies as soon as possible to safeguard Venice and its lagoon,” he said.
Venice’s history of severe flooding
Venice has faced devastating floods in the past, with major incidents recorded in 1966 and 2019. The 1966 flood saw water levels rise to 194 centimeters, while the 2019 flood reached 187 centimeters—the second-highest in history.
To mitigate such disasters, construction of the MOSE system began in 2003, with gradual activation starting in 2020. Designed to protect against 3-meter tides and potential sea-level rises of 60 centimeters over a century, the system is now facing concerns about its long-term effectiveness.
As climate change continues to reshape global coastlines, Venice’s future as a city above water remains uncertain, pushing authorities to rethink its flood defenses before it is too late.
