Greece’s demographic fears: Contrasting birth rates with Türkiye stir paranoia
People walk near the passenger ships, which are moored during a 24-hour general strike, in the port of Piraeus, Greece on November 20, 2024. Unions that have called for the strike to protest economic policies, citing concerns over inflation, stagnant wages, rising living costs, and increasing housing expenses. ( Costas Baltas - Anadolu Agency )
Across Greece, the echoes of economic hardship are not just felt in financial markets but also in the dwindling numbers of its population. Decades of economic instability have prompted many young Greeks to either emigrate or postpone starting families, pushing the country into a demographic crisis that could have lasting repercussions. With projections indicating a steep population decline in the coming decades, the issue has become a pressing concern for policymakers and communities alike.
Greece’s demographic crisis: No single reason
While economic hardship has undoubtedly played a role in Greece’s declining birth rates, as expressed by many individuals, it alone does not fully explain the demographic crisis. If economic incentives were the sole determining factor, then countries like Japan and South Korea—both of which have strong economies and extensive government-backed family support programs—would not be struggling with historically low fertility rates.
Though linked with right-wing thought, now many scholars and analysts emphasize the role of ideology, secularization, and shifting values in demographic decline, as Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham, explains. The issue extends beyond economic constraints into deeper cultural and societal shifts. Changing attitudes toward family life, career priorities, urbanization, and evolving social norms have all contributed to a declining birth rate.
Many young Greeks now place greater emphasis on personal development, professional ambitions, and lifestyle choices that do not necessarily align with traditional family structures. The cost of raising children, coupled with concerns over job security and work-life balance, has led many to delay or entirely forgo parenthood.
Additionally, participating in the EU, access to education and career opportunities has encouraged mobility, both within Greece and abroad. Younger generations increasingly seek professional prospects in larger cities or outside the country, further depopulating rural areas and making it even less likely that they will return to their hometowns to start families.
Reality of many
In villages across Greece, the impact of depopulation is starkly visible. On the island of Chios, once-thriving rural communities are now eerily quiet, with abandoned homes, closed businesses, and deserted schools, as euronews reported earlier. During the summer months, some expatriates return to reconnect with their roots, but the exodus of younger generations has left these areas largely uninhabited.
For many, the decision to leave was not optional but a necessity. Economic constraints have made it increasingly difficult to sustain a livelihood in smaller towns and villages.
Paranoia won’t help
Greece’s financial troubles of the 2010s led to severe austerity measures, high unemployment, and widespread social unrest. Although the country has since exited its financial bailout programs, the effects of the crisis remain deeply ingrained in society.
Experts suggest that the financial downturn accelerated Greece’s declining birth rate, which now falls below the European Union average. This, combined with an ongoing brain drain and an aging population, and an alleged foreign immigrant trend, presents significant challenges, particularly considering the health care and pension systems. A shrinking workforce will have to bear the financial burden of supporting an increasingly elderly population, making economic productivity a key concern for the future.
Beyond economic and social factors, another element shaping Greece’s demographic anxieties is a growing sense of paranoia when comparing itself to Türkiye. As Türkiye continues to experience rapid urbanization and modernization, albeit with its own recent fertility decline, many in Greece perceive their demographic downturn as a strategic vulnerability. The contrast between Türkiye’s larger, younger population and Greece’s aging society has fueled concerns over national security, economic competition, and geopolitical influence in the region.
This anxiety is reflected in public discourse and policy discussions, where comparisons with Türkiye often surface as a source of unease. Instead of focusing solely on internal solutions, some Greek commentators frame the issue as a broader geopolitical struggle, reinforcing fears that Greece’s shrinking workforce and declining birthrate could weaken its position in the long term. Such comparisons, however, risk obscuring the structural issues at the heart of Greece’s demographic crisis, factors that cannot be addressed simply by looking at neighboring countries.
The human impact
In response to the crisis, Greece established its first ministerial position dedicated to addressing the demographic decline in 2023. The government has introduced financial incentives, such as tax breaks and increased state allowances for parents of newborns. However, officials acknowledge that financial aid alone is insufficient to reverse the trend. Additional measures are necessary to encourage young Greeks to remain in the country and start families.
Greece already has a flexible work-life balance. It also has a religious population that approaches modernity with skepticism. The French and Israeli models could still bring salvation to Greece to boost its population before it’s too late, provided that jobs can be created for those who remain and are alive first.
Everybody’s problem
Greece is not alone in facing demographic decline. Across the European Union, population numbers are expected to shrink by 4% over the next 50 years. However, Greece’s situation is particularly dire, with projections indicating a potential 25% drop in its population within the same period. The dramatic decline presents significant challenges for long-term national stability.
Rather than drawing comparisons with countries facing different circumstances, Greece may need to focus on solutions tailored to its own unique challenges. Addressing the crisis requires a comprehensive strategy that balances economic recovery with a change in mentality. While financial incentives and policy reforms are steps in the right direction, reversing Greece’s demographic decline will demand sustained efforts.
