Türkiye expands gas production as Europe’s output set to decline by 2050: Report

As Europe’s natural gas production is expected to decline significantly by 2050, Türkiye is positioning itself as a rising gas producer with ambitious production plans and recent discoveries, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

The GECF’s “2050 Outlook” report, released on March 10, projected that global natural gas production will reach 5.32 trillion cubic meters by 2050. The Middle East is expected to see the largest production increase, with an additional 461 billion cubic meters (121.78 trillion gallons).

Eurasia is projected to follow with 362 billion cubic meters, while Africa, North America, the Asia-Pacific region, and Latin America are expected to increase their production by 250 billion, 107 billion, 91 billion, and 87 billion cubic meters, respectively.

In contrast, Europe’s natural gas production is expected to decline by 119 billion cubic meters. However, the report underlined Türkiye’s growing role as a key player in the region’s gas production landscape.

Aiming to boost gas production, reduce imports burden

Türkiye was among the countries that contributed significantly to global gas supply growth in 2023, along with Mozambique and Tanzania. The report describes Türkiye as an emerging natural gas producer in Europe, pursuing ambitious plans to increase domestic production and reduce energy import costs.

Türkiye’s annual natural gas production rose from 400 million cubic meters in 2022 to 1.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, driven largely by the Sakarya Gas Field coming online. The report attributes this surge to domestic gas discoveries.

According to data from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK), Türkiye’s annual production reached approximately 2.26 billion cubic meters in 2024.

The report also noted Türkiye’s goal of significantly increasing output from the Sakarya Gas Field, stating that the second phase of development is expected to start production in the latter half of this decade, with a potential capacity of 9 billion cubic meters. By 2050, Türkiye’s domestic natural gas production is projected to reach 17 billion cubic meters, supported by continued development at Sakarya and new discoveries in the South Akcakoca Basin, offshore Duzce province.

Production from the Sakarya Gas Field is expected to continue until 2050, providing a stable foundation for Türkiye’s domestic gas supply.

Türkiye is on track to be the only European country experiencing substantial growth in natural gas demand, according to the report. This expansion is attributed to strong economic growth, the expansion of gas transmission and distribution networks, new domestic gas discoveries, and increased import opportunities.

The report forecasted that Türkiye’s gas demand will be concentrated in power generation and industrial sectors, supporting broader energy and economic development goals.

Türkiye strengthens position as an energy hub

The report highlighted Türkiye’s well-developed natural gas infrastructure, including pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, positioning the country as a critical energy hub between the Middle East, Russia, and Europe.

“Türkiye is establishing itself as a key player in the global energy market by serving as a transit center for major suppliers in the Middle East, Russia, and Europe,” the report stated.

Türkiye’s net natural gas imports are projected to reach 69 billion cubic meters by 2050.

The country continues to expand its offshore exploration and drilling activities with a fleet of four drilling and two seismic research vessels. Türkiye recently enhanced its capabilities with the addition of a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.

In addition to its pipeline infrastructure, Türkiye has five LNG terminals, three of which have regasification capacity, and 14 different entry points for natural gas. The country’s daily gas entry capacity currently stands at 455 million cubic meters.