Ukraine’s mining reserves: Fact vs fiction in race for critical resources

In recent discussions about Ukraine’s mineral resources, the Western media has been vocal about the potential value of the country’s mines. They highlight Ukraine’s rich reserves of rare earth elements and critical minerals, hoping for a lucrative deal between Ukraine and the United States. According to Turkish media, some skeptics challenge these claims, questioning whether the mineral deposits are commercially viable.

Are these minerals worth extracting, and is this agreement logical from the perspective of the U.S.?

Reality of Ukraine’s mineral reserves

Ukraine is often described as having vast resources of rare earth elements, with media reports suggesting that these elements, along with other minerals, are vital for modern technology. While these claims are widespread, there are doubts about their accuracy. Rare earth elements, which are mentioned frequently, refer to a group of 17 elements crucial in advanced technologies like electronics and renewable energy systems. Ukraine is said to have reserves of lanthanum and cerium, two important rare earth elements, although some experts question the validity of these claims.

On the other hand, critical minerals, essential for global supply chains, are another point of interest. Ukraine is believed to hold significant reserves of minerals such as titanium and lithium, two critical resources used in industries from automotive to electronics. In fact, Ukraine is said to have the largest lithium reserves in Europe, with estimates reaching 500,000 tons. Ukraine’s titanium deposits also contribute to 7% of global production, underscoring their strategic importance.

What’s value of Ukraine’s mineral reserves?

The potential value of Ukraine’s mineral reserves is a topic of much debate. According to a 2022 Washington Post investigation, when considering not just critical minerals but also natural resources like natural gas, oil, and coal, the total value of Ukraine’s underground riches could reach up to 26 trillion dollars. Another assessment by Forbes places this number at approximately 14.8 trillion dollars.

However, the true value remains uncertain, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. A significant portion of Ukraine’s mineral deposits, approximately 40%, lie in territories controlled by Russia. This complicates matters, as these areas remain under occupation, limiting access to resources that could be pivotal in future deals.

Are reserves ready for extraction?

While these estimates sound promising, there’s a distinction between reserves and resources. Reserves refer to mineral deposits that have been fully explored and are ready for extraction, while resources are untapped deposits that may or may not be economically viable. In Ukraine’s case, much of the mineral wealth has yet to be fully assessed.

Experts have raised concerns that outdated Soviet-era reports may not accurately reflect the current state of these resources. This includes the aforementioned rare earth elements, which may not be as abundant as initially claimed.

Another issue is Ukraine’s mining technology, which remains outdated. Much of the mining operations still rely on Soviet-era methods, which are inefficient and costly. For instance, uranium mining in Ukraine has been problematic due to technological limitations, leading to the country relying on Russian imports before the war.

Why the US wants Ukrainian mines?

Given that the U.S. already possesses large reserves of critical minerals, why is it so interested in Ukrainian resources? The lithium reserves in Ukraine are particularly attractive. While the U.S. has its own lithium deposits, Ukraine’s reserves are located in Europe, which could be strategically advantageous for the U.S. in terms of supply chain diversification and geopolitical influence.

Despite the potential value, there are risks. As experts like Professor Paul Anderson from the U.K.’s Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements & Critical Materials suggest, the reliability of Ukraine’s mining data is uncertain. It’s possible that the country has overstated the value of its mineral wealth.