Israel likely to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities by midyear, US intelligence warns: Report
An Israeli F-15 fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (AFP Photo/Handout/Israeli Army)
Israel is likely to launch a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by midyear, according to multiple U.S. intelligence reports cited by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
The intelligence assessments, compiled during the final months of the Biden administration and early days of the Trump administration, suggest that Israel views this as a critical window to strike before Tehran advances its nuclear program further.
US intelligence reports indicate growing threat
The reports indicate that Israel is actively considering striking Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, which are heavily fortified.
Analysts believe an attack would delay Iran’s nuclear progress by weeks or months but could also escalate tensions in the region and risk a broader conflict.
According to sources familiar with the intelligence, Israeli officials believe that their airstrikes last year significantly weakened Iran’s air defenses and left the country vulnerable to additional strikes.
Iran and Israel have engaged in retaliatory attacks over the past year, particularly amid heightened tensions related to Israel’s war in Gaza.
US role and potential involvement
The intelligence reports suggest that Israel may pressure the Trump administration for support, believing Trump is more likely to back military action against Iran than former President Joe Biden.
The analysis also notes that Israel would likely require U.S. military assistance, including aerial refueling and intelligence support, to carry out an effective strike on Iran’s underground nuclear sites.
Brian Hughes, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, reiterated Trump’s stance on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. “While he prefers negotiating a resolution to America’s long-standing issues with the Iranian regime peacefully, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to deal, and soon,” Hughes told The Washington Post.
Iran’s response and regional stability
Iran has repeatedly warned that it would retaliate if its nuclear facilities were targeted. However, U.S. intelligence officials believe Iran is in a weakened state following previous Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure and the losses suffered by its regional allies, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
The economic crisis in Iran, compounded by sanctions and internal instability, has also left Tehran vulnerable.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled a willingness to take more aggressive action against Iran, stating in November, “Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities.”
Diplomatic efforts and uncertain future
While Israel appears to be preparing for a potential strike, diplomatic efforts continue. Iran, Britain, France, and Germany have met in Geneva in an attempt to revive stalled nuclear talks, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
However, Iran’s accumulation of highly enriched uranium has heightened concerns among Western intelligence agencies that Tehran may be closer to developing a nuclear weapon.
Former Israeli National Security Adviser Yakov Amidror noted that while a diplomatic agreement would be preferable, Israel remains ready to act if negotiations fail. “If a good agreement cannot be achieved, Israel will have to act against the nuclear project of Iran,” Amidror said.
The Biden administration previously convinced Israeli leaders to avoid strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, instead targeting its missile production and air defense systems. However, with Trump now in office, the possibility of military intervention appears to be back on the table.
