Poll reveals close race in hypothetical early presidential election scenario

A recent poll by independent research firm Betimar shows the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) as the leading political party. In a potential presidential election scenario, the poll results suggest that there would be a tight race between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu if they were to run as candidates.

CHP leads in parliamentary preferences

The Betimar Political Agenda Survey – January 2025 was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews with 1,500 respondents aged 18 and over across Türkiye.

The results indicate that CHP holds a narrow lead over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in parliamentary preferences:

• CHP: 31.6%
• AK Party: 31.2%
• Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 9.1%
• Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party: 8.8%
• Good Party (IYI): 5.1%
• Victory Party (Zafer): 4.6%
• New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah): 3.7%
• Anahtar (Key) Party: 1.6%
• Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TIP): 1.3%

Erdogan leads in three-way presidential election scenario

When asked who they would vote for in an early presidential election featuring Erdogan, Yavas and Imamoglu, respondents gave the following answers:

• Erdogan: 33%
• Yavas: 28.7%
• Imamoglu: 27%

Yavas preferred as president in open-ended question

In a separate question, participants were asked who they would prefer as president without a predefined candidate list. The results showed:

• Yavas: 25.5%
• Erdogan: 24%
• Imamoglu: 20.9%
• Selahattin Demirtas: 4.6%
• Hakan Fidan: 4.2%