Former EU chief economist advises closer ties with Türkiye amid trade war concerns
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives before a meeting with European Commission President and EU Council President at the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 9, 2020. (AFP Photo)
Former European Commission chief economist Professor Hasan Alkas urged the European Union to develop new strategies in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential tariff hikes, suggesting that strengthening relations with Türkiye would be in Brussels’ best interest.
Trump’s tariff threats raise concerns in the EU
The prospect of Trump returning to the White House has revived fears of a trade war between the U.S. and the EU. Trump has proposed tariffs of 10%-20% on all imports and 100% on automobiles, citing the need to protect American jobs and counter what he calls unfair trade practices from Europe.
Alkas, who served as the chief economist for the European Commission between 2006 and 2010, highlighted the serious economic risks posed by U.S. tariffs and the challenges of forming a unified EU response due to the bloc’s fragmented political structure.
EU’s potential response to US tariffs
According to Alkas, if the U.S. proceeds with higher tariffs, the EU will have no choice but to implement countermeasures.
“The EU is not a structure to be underestimated—it represents a market of nearly 500 million people. If a trade war begins, the EU will have to respond in kind by imposing tariffs of its own,” he stated.
While retaliatory tariffs are an option, Alkas cautioned that a prolonged trade war would harm both sides, as neither the European nor the American economy is in a position to endure sustained economic disruptions.
“A trade war would affect the EU, but the U.S. wouldn’t come out unscathed either,” he added.
Economic shifts and role of BRICS
Alkas noted that since Trump’s first presidency, the global economic landscape has shifted significantly, particularly with the rise of BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
“The U.S. still sees itself as the dominant power, but global economic balances have shifted south and east. China is aware of this and will no longer react to Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric the same way it did before,” he explained.
Alkas also pointed out that U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have driven BRICS nations closer together, creating a more unified economic bloc that poses a greater challenge to Western dominance.
Impact of EU’s green policies on economic growth
Alkas criticized the EU’s aggressive green transition policies, arguing that they have negatively impacted industrial growth and led to higher energy costs, weakening European competitiveness.
“The EU needs to adjust its environmental policies to more realistic levels. Overregulation and high energy prices are making European industries less competitive, leading to deindustrialization and economic stagnation,” he warned.
He emphasized that EU leaders must better communicate the economic costs of environmental policies to citizens, stating: “There is no economic model that allows both growth and complete environmental protection simultaneously. The EU must acknowledge this reality.”
Türkiye’s role in EU’s economic strategy
Alkas highlighted Türkiye’s economic resilience, arguing that stronger EU-Türkiye relations would benefit both sides.
“Türkiye continues to grow even in the most challenging times. The EU is aware of this and sees Türkiye’s economic potential,” he said.
He further asserted that both Türkiye and Russia should play key roles in Europe’s long-term strategy, stating: “Without integrating Türkiye and Russia, Europe will struggle to remain competitive against other global powers.”
In contrast to previous years, Türkiye is no longer a financial burden for the EU, Alkas argued: “Türkiye is not the poorest country in Europe anymore. Its economic performance is significantly stronger, making it a valuable partner rather than a liability.”
Long-term EU strategy: Relations with Russia
Looking beyond short-term economic concerns, Alkas suggested that Brussels must eventually work toward normalizing relations with Russia despite current geopolitical tensions.
“Europe cannot build a long-term peace structure or successfully compete against China and the U.S. without engaging Russia,” he said, although he acknowledged that current circumstances make immediate cooperation difficult.
In the meantime, he recommended that the EU deepen ties with Asian and Latin American markets, emphasizing the importance of securing independent trade agreements.
