Global electric vehicle sales to surge in 2025, with China maintaining lead

Rho Motion, a prominent electric vehicle analytics group, reported on Tuesday that global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to exceed 20 million units in 2025, marking an 18% increase from 2024.

This growth comes amid shifting legislative landscapes in key regions, with China leading the charge, the E.U. enforcing stricter emissions standards, and North America adjusting to policy changes under the Donald Trump administration.

Describing 2025 as “the year of legislation,” Iola Hughes, head of research for Rho Motion, said: “The E.U. is seeing emission targets come into place, Trump’s presidency promises change for the U.S., and China continues the popular trade-in scheme. Still, we anticipate a steady year of growth across all regions, with China continuing to lead the charge.”

EU set to recover in electric vehicle sales

China is projected at the forefront of the EV revolution, with projected sales of 12.9 million units in 2025, marking a 17% increase from 2024.

The country’s dominance is bolstered by its aggressive expansion into international markets, with major manufacturers such as BYD and Great Wall Motors establishing production facilities abroad, including in Brazil and Hungary.

Domestically, the continuation of a trade-in scheme for older vehicles will sustain high levels of consumer demand in China, the report noted. “The next stage for the mature EV market in China is for more consolidation of manufacturers and beyond this year, we can expect the country to tip over the 50% market saturation of EVs versus ICE (internal combustion engines),” it said.

The European market ─the E.U., European Free Trade Association, and the U.K.─ is predicted to recover from a difficult 2024, during which sales declined by 3% compared to 2023. New emissions standards coming into effect are expected to drive a 15% year-on-year growth, with 3.5 million units projected to be sold in 2025.

Despite this recovery, European automakers face significant hurdles, including the risk of up to €10 billion ($10.4 billion) in fines for failing to meet stringent emission targets.
Many car manufacturers focus on new smaller and affordable EV models priced below €25,000 to boost adoption among cost-conscious consumers.

In the U.S. and Canada, the EV market is foreseen to grow by 16% in 2025, with sales at 2.1 million units.

The transition to President Donald Trump’s administration brings uncertainty to the sector, particularly regarding potential policy shifts such as the removal of EV tax credits.
However, the immediate impact on 2025 is expected to be minimal, as manufacturers have already set their plans for the year.

“Following his inauguration, President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda is in full swing and though the removal of EV tax credits is going to impact the long-term market, little change will be seen this year as the electrification of vehicles is here to stay,” Hughes said.