The humanitarian and geopolitical challenge in Sudan

Sudan’s civil war, now nearing its two-year mark, continues to devastate the country. Millions of people have been displaced, and severe food shortages persist. More than 150,000 lives have been lost, and 11 million people have been forced to flee their homes, making this one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world today. Despite the severity of the situation, Sudan’s crisis struggles to capture global attention, overshadowed by other conflicts such as the besieged Gaza enclave of the occupied State of Palestine and war-torn Ukraine.

The ongoing violence is pushing Sudan toward total state collapse, with serious consequences for the wider region, including increased displacement, economic breakdown and illicit activities.

The conflict, which began in April 2023, has evolved from an internal struggle for power into a complex geopolitical crisis involving several international actors. Sudan’s strategic location and rich natural resources have made it a focal point for regional and global interests, complicating peace efforts.

Competing interests, regional instability

Foreign powers have turned Sudan’s war into a battlefield of competing interests, further fueling the crisis. The UAE has been accused of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is also known as the rioters or rebellion forces, allegedly to secure access to Sudan’s vast gold reserves and extend its influence over the Red Sea trade routes.

Meanwhile, Egypt backs the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to secure the Nile River and maintain a stable border.

Russia has also increased its involvement, seeking access to the strategic Port Sudan. By working with both factions, Russia aims to expand its influence in Africa despite facing Western sanctions elsewhere. Similarly, Iran has been accused of providing weapons to the SAF to counter the Gulf influence in the region. These external interventions have prolonged the bloody war and made it even harder to find a peaceful resolution.

Weak and divided international response

Despite the escalating crisis, the international response has been slow and divided. The United States has imposed sanctions on both the RSF and SAF leadership, targeting key figures such as RSF commander Hemedti and SAF leader Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan. However, these sanctions have had little impact, as both groups continue to receive financial and military support from external actors.

The situation on the ground remains dire, as seen in recent fighting near the al-Jili oil refinery, north of Khartoum. The Sudanese army launched a major offensive to reclaim the refinery, leading to intense clashes with the RSF. The RSF’s earlier 48-hour ultimatum demanding the army’s withdrawal from el-Fasher, followed by retaliatory airstrikes, reflects the ongoing military deadlock. Both sides continue to prioritize military gains over peace talks, perpetuating a cycle of destruction.

The humanitarian crisis worsened further after a deadly attack on the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital in El Fasher, which left around 70 people dead! Local officials blamed the RSF and Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the attack, calling it a violation of international law. Meanwhile, neighboring South Sudan has suspended social media access for 30 days to prevent unrest after videos of alleged killings of South Sudanese nationals began circulating online.

Although humanitarian organizations continue to call for increased aid, global powers remain reluctant to commit significant resources. The lack of a coordinated diplomatic strategy leaves Sudan at risk of becoming a prolonged conflict with devastating consequences for its people and the region.

Türkiye’s balanced approach

Türkiye has taken a different approach compared to other international actors. Instead of focusing solely on strategic interests, Türkiye has emphasized diplomatic engagement and humanitarian support. With its historical ties to Sudan and extensive experience in conflict resolution, Türkiye is seen as a credible and impartial mediator.

Türkiye’s ambassador to Sudan, Fatih Yildiz, is widely recognized as an experienced career diplomat. His work in Sudan has played an important role in fostering dialogue and supporting humanitarian efforts. Turkish organizations have been providing essential aid, including food, medical services and infrastructure support, to displaced communities.

Türkiye’s approach demonstrates a commitment to long-term stability in Sudan, balancing diplomatic efforts with practical humanitarian support.

What needs to happen

Resolving Sudan’s conflict requires a change in strategy from the international community. Diplomatic efforts must move beyond isolated measures and focus on an inclusive political solution that brings together all key stakeholders. Regional powers such as Türkiye and some others could play a key role in facilitating negotiations and encouraging both sides to seek a peaceful resolution.

Humanitarian aid must also be significantly increased to address the needs of millions of displaced people. However, aid alone will not be enough. Political and economic measures must be implemented to restore governance and address the root causes of the conflict, such as political instability and economic hardship.

Long-term solutions should focus on rebuilding Sudan’s institutions and promoting economic recovery. Any sustainable peace process must address these fundamental challenges to ensure lasting stability.

The road ahead

Sudan’s crisis is not just a national issue; it is a regional challenge with global implications. If left unchecked, Sudan’s descent into chaos could further destabilize neighboring countries such as Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, all of which are already struggling to handle the growing influx of refugees and economic disruptions. The recent clashes around critical infrastructure, such as the al-Jili refinery, highlight how economic assets are becoming key battlegrounds in the conflict, raising the stakes for all involved parties.

Without stronger diplomatic engagement and a commitment to rebuilding Sudan’s institutions, the conflict will only deepen, and its ripple effects will continue to spread across the region. The choices made now by both regional and international stakeholders will determine whether Sudan moves toward peace or falls further into turmoil.

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Ceren Harputlu is an analyst specializing in international relations. She occasionally contributes as a freelance writer.