France faces declining military presence, political influence in Africa
French soldiers board a military plane following their departure from Abeche military base as part of an on ongoing withdrawal of French Forces in Abeche on January 11, 2025. (AFP Photo)
France‘s military withdrawal from several African nations has coincided with a significant decline in its political influence across the continent.
With reduced troops in key regions like the Sahel, France is struggling to maintain its historical presence amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Military exits across Africa
France’s military withdrawal spans countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, with Chad being the latest to terminate its defense agreements.
French troops left Chad’s Abeche base earlier this month, and the final withdrawal from the Adji Kossei base in N’Djamena is set for Jan. 31.
Senegal has also announced plans for all foreign troops to leave its territory by 2025, signaling further setbacks for the French military presence in Africa.
Shift in regional dynamics
Speaking to the Anadolu Agency, Ahmed Nureddin, an expert on the Sahel and Sahara region, attributes France’s declining influence to both internal and external factors.
“We are witnessing a growing campaign against France’s presence in the region. Many sources suggest that Russia and, to some extent, China are behind this campaign,” he said.
Nureddin also pointed to France’s alleged involvement in past ethnic massacres in Rwanda and the Central African Republic as a reason for waning trust in its leadership.
“France’s involvement, directly or indirectly, in some ethnic massacres is cited as one of the reasons for its diminished influence in the region,” he noted.
Local resistance to former colonial powers
Nureddin emphasized the broader trend of African nations distancing themselves from colonial powers: “There is a movement in Africa to break free from colonial legacies. While this movement has local roots, it is also supported externally, particularly through social media campaigns.”
He highlighted that this vacuum of influence has created opportunities for other global powers: “Russia, China, and India are seeking to fill the void left by France. Meanwhile, countries like the U.S. and Japan are working to prevent China from consolidating control in these areas.”
Economic impacts of declining influence
France’s economic role in Africa has also diminished. Nureddin explained, “The share of French imports in Africa has fallen from 12.5% to around 7% over the last 20 years. In contrast, China’s exports have grown more than 33-fold during the same period.”
Nureddin added that France’s control of the CFA franc, previously a critical tool of economic dependency, is waning.”The CFA franc, managed by the French Central Bank, was a strong instrument of control, but the push for an independent African currency weakens France’s financial grip.”
Africa-China relations in 2025 began with a visit by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the continent from Jan.5 to 11. Since 1991, it has been a tradition for China’s foreign minister to visit multiple African countries at the start of each year, reflecting the importance of Africa in Beijing’s diplomatic calendar.
This visit marked Wang Yi’s 57th trip to Africa since 2013, underscoring the continent’s growing significance in China’s global strategy.
Africa is increasingly central to China’s ambition to dominate global clean energy supply chains. Chinese companies currently account for 8% of Africa’s total mining output, which is significantly lower than the share held by Western firms.
Nevertheless, China has been steadily increasing its presence. Since 2019, Chinese ownership of mines in Africa has grown by 21%. In 2024 alone, Chinese firms made significant acquisitions, including copper mines in Botswana and Zambia, copper and cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and lithium projects in Zimbabwe and Mali.
Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), around 20% of the region’s exports now go to China, while about 16% of its imports come from there. This trade relationship reached a record $282 billion in 2023.
Metals, mineral products, and fuel constitute about three-fifths of Africa’s exports to China, while Chinese-manufactured goods, electronics, and machinery dominate imports from China.
China has also become Africa’s largest bilateral creditor, offering substantial financing for infrastructure, mining, and energy projects. In 2005, China’s share of sub-Saharan Africa’s external public debt was less than 2%. By 2021, it had grown to 17%, amounting to $134 billion.
Long-term regional stability
Looking ahead, Nureddin expressed concerns about the consequences of replacing French influence with that of other powers: “If African countries replace French influence with that of Russia or China, it may not lead to genuine regional stability. The potential for increased international conflicts on African soil is a significant risk, and the cost will be borne by African nations.”
However, he remained hopeful that these changes could empower African countries: “This shift could contribute to regional stability and prosperity if it reflects a strategic effort to strengthen national sovereignty and build robust economies.”
