Rising seismic activity in Türkiye’s Aegean region could lead to 7.5 magnitude quake

Recent seismic activity in Türkiye’s Aegean region has alarmed experts. Professor Ahmet Ercan has warned that ongoing tectonic movements could result in earthquakes of up to 7.5 magnitude, particularly along the Crete-Rhodes arc.

While not every seismic swarm leads to a major earthquake, Professor Ercan highlighted significant tension in the Fethiye-Marmaris and Gokova Gulf areas.

Earthquakes shake Aegean region

According to Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the Aegean region experienced several tremors, including 4.0-magnitude quakes in Mugla’s Mentese district and near Marmaris, as well as a 3.5-magnitude quake off Bodrum’s coast.

Tectonic forces driving seismic activity

In an interview with Halk TV, Professor Ercan explained that the African tectonic plate’s northward push beneath the Aegean, Adriatic and Anatolian regions is the primary cause of the seismic activity. This movement generates stress along the Crete, Rhodes and Cyprus arcs, compressing the Anatolian landmass.

“The African plate’s steady northward movement—at a rate of 3 to 5 centimeters annually—has persisted for 10 million years and shows no signs of stopping,” stated Professor Ercan.

Deep earthquakes along Crete-Rhodes arc

Unlike most of Türkiye’s earthquakes, which occur at depths of 5 to 7 kilometers, those in the Crete-Rhodes arc could reach depths of up to 150 kilometers. Professor Ercan emphasized the potential for deep and powerful earthquakes in this zone.

Gokova fault: A seismic hotspot

The Gokova Fault—stretching from Mugla’s Ula district to Bodrum—is experiencing heightened seismic activity. This fault includes areas near the Gokova Thermal Power Plant. Professor Ercan noted that the region’s current activity mirrors patterns observed before the 2017 Bodrum earthquakes.

What does seismic storm mean?

“We are observing a seismic storm,” Professor Ercan stated. He explained that while such swarms do not always lead to major earthquakes, they indicate significant tectonic stress.

Tension building in key areas

The accumulated tension in the Fethiye-Marmaris and Gokova Gulf areas demands attention. “This tension will eventually be released through an earthquake,” warned Professor Ercan.